New PublicationS

Multi-Hazard Shaking-Tsunami Fatality Risk Estimation for Coastal Communities

Abstract

This study develops a multi-hazard fatality risk model for a coastal community (Tofino) on Vancouver Island, Canada, subjected to earthquake-tsunami threats from the Cascadia subduction megathrust events. The model incorporates variable population distributions and uncertain fatality rate models, in addition to other key model components, such as time-dependent earthquake occurrence, stochastic rupture source, ground motion simulation, and tsunami inundation simulation. Using the developed risk model, exceedance frequency (F) plots in terms of the number of anticipated fatalities (N) are derived for single-hazard and multi-hazard cases. The F-N curves can be used for evaluating the adequacy of current earthquake-tsunami risk situations, compared with the acceptable risk tolerability limits. The obtained F-N curves for Tofino intersect with the local scrutiny line set by the UK Health and Safety Executive, indicating that the earthquake-tsunami risk levels for Tofino residents and visitors fall within the As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) region. Thereby, when effective risk mitigation measures are available, such actions should be pursued. Moreover, the community-level earthquake-tsunami risk management approach is discussed by considering joint characteristics of fatality and financial risks. The results show very different risk characteristics of the fatality and financial risks due to intense ground motions and tsunami inundations. Such multivariate risk quantification will be essential because more generalized risk management approaches are adopted and implemented across technological and disaster risk domains.

Citation: Goda, K. (2026). Multi-hazard shaking–tsunami fatality risk estimation for coastal communities. Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1002/eqe.70220

An exploratory forward sortation area-level analysis of social vulnerability change and insured disaster losses in Canada

Abstract

Understanding how social vulnerability evolves over time is essential for assessing broad patterns of societal exposure to hazards. This study develops and compares Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) scores for Canadian Forward Sortation Areas (FSAs) using the 2016 and 2021 Census data, providing a national-level, spatially explicit exploratory assessment of temporal changes in vulnerability and their spatial correspondence with insured disaster losses across Canada. Principal component analysis (PCA) is applied to derive underlying socioeconomic dimensions, and both SoVI and a standardized socioeconomic status (SES) index are constructed using consistent methodologies to enable cross-year comparison. Spatial patterns are examined using global and local Moran's I and Getis–Ord Gi∗ statistics to identify clustering, including hot spots and cold spots of vulnerability. Relative comparisons suggest that from 2016 to 2021, Canadian FSAs experienced modest increases in SoVI alongside general declines in SES, being consistent with broader national-scale patterns of higher vulnerability and lower socioeconomic conditions. Both indicators exhibit significant spatial clustering, with high–high clusters most prevalent in parts of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. Local Moran's I results align with Getis–Ord Gi∗ hotspot analysis, indicating regionally concentrated vulnerability patterns. A spatial comparison of socio-economic vulnerability (SoVI and SES) and cumulative insured disaster losses reveals both areas of alignment and divergence across FSAs. Insured loss captures an important dimension of disaster impact shaped by exposure, asset values, and insurance coverage, providing a valuable lens for examining national-scale patterns. Framed as an exploratory, national-scale screening exercise, the study leverages FSAs to enable consistent linkage with insured-loss data across Canada, while acknowledging that casuality of these spatial relationships cannot be concluded and finer-scale heterogeneity lies beyond its scope. The results offer a broad benchmarking perspective on the relationship between social vulnerability and insured losses, helping to guide and prioritize more detailed future analyses.

Citation: Roosmawati, N., & Goda, K. (2026). An exploratory forward sortation area-level analysis of social vulnerability change and insured disaster losses in Canada. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 141, Article 106209. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106209

SoVI Algorithm and MATLAB Implementation Manual: Analysis Using Canada Census 2016 / 2021 Data

We are pleased to announce the public release of the SoVI Algorithm and MATLAB Implementation Manual: Analysis Using Canada Census 2016 / 2021 Data, now openly available on Zenodo.

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Citation: Roosmawati, N., & Goda, K. (2025). SoVI Algorithm and MATLAB Implementation Manual: Analysis Using Canada Census 2016 / 2021 Data (1.0.0) [Data set]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17635568

Risk-based multi-hazard microzonation for earthquakes and tsunamis

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Citation: Goda, K., & Catalan, P. A. (2025). Risk-based Multi-hazard Microzonation for Earthquakes and Tsunamis. Frontiers in Earth Science, 13, 1568069. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2025.1568069

You can find the article in Frontiers in Earth Science

List of Publications from the CIRCLE Projects Across Various Study Areas

A Dynamic Bayesian Network Approach to Characterize Multi-Hazard Risks and Resilience in Interconnected Critical Infrastructures

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Citation: Bakhtiari, S., Najafi, M. R., Goda, K., & Peerhossaini, H. (2025). A Dynamic Bayesian Network Approach to Characterize Multi-Hazard Risks and Resilience in Interconnected Critical Infrastructures. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2025.110815

You can find the article in Reliability Engineering & System Safety Journal

List of Publications from the CIRCLE Projects Across Various Study Areas

Effect of Calibration Data on Performance of Tsunami Early Warning Model

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Citation: Goda, K., Chamatidis, I., & Istrati, D. (2025). Effect of calibration data on performance of tsunami early warning model. Coastal Engineering Journal, 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1080/21664250.2025.2516324

You can find the article in Coastal Engineering Journal OR request via researchgate.net

List of Publications from the CIRCLE Projects Across Various Study Areas

Quick Loss Estimation Tool (QLET) for Seismic Risk Assessment in Canada

A new peer-reviewed article has been published in GeoHazards titled:

“Rapid Computation of Seismic Loss Curves for Canadian Buildings Using Tail Approximation Method”
Authors: Payam Momeni, Katsuichiro Goda, Navid Sirous, and Sheri Molnar

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QLET is freely available as an open-source repository on GitHub, providing both the MATLAB codes and GUI-based application for users and researchers:
https://github.com/pmomeni/QuickLossEstimationTool_QLET

Read the full article:
https://www.mdpi.com/2624-795X/6/2/26